[Futures Market] During the night session, SHFE copper fluctuated, while it rose strongly during the day session, hitting a new intraday high in the afternoon. The most-traded August contract closed at 78,680, up 0.52%, with total trading volume increasing and total open interest rising by over 11,000 lots. SHFE aluminum performed weakly during the night session but rebounded during the day session, driven by SHFE copper. The most-traded August contract closed at 20,355, up 0.12%, with trading volume decreasing and total open interest slightly increasing. During the same period, both alumina and aluminum alloy prices rose slightly.
[Analysis] During today's day session, the domestic stock market performed strongly, having a positive impact on copper prices. After the expansion of positions resumed for SHFE copper forward contracts, futures prices regained strength. Driven by SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum shook off the negative impact of falling crude oil prices, with the support range of 20,000-20,300 remaining effective. Currently, both copper and aluminum are in a phase of continuous inventory reduction. If SHFE copper continues to see an increase in positions in the later period, copper prices are expected to continue rising. As for aluminum, after recent adjustments, the premium factor brought about by the previous surge in crude oil prices has disappeared. Attention should be paid to the support range of 20,000-20,300, as the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged.
[Valuation] Copper: Neutral to slightly high; Aluminum: Neutral
[Risk] External risks
(Source: China Fortune Futures)
